Hello Everyone !
Long time without article.
Lots of things going on in the background, lots of delays too…

Anyway, here is a small Gulden TA:

First lets look at the big picture on the D1 TimeFrame

There is plenty of interesting bits on this one, so let’s focus on the essential:

Lower pink line is the long-term trend; it’s connected by the two lower-low of the year so far; they shouldn’t be exceeded (but anything is possible)

Upper pink line is mid-term trend

Red line is a steep down trend; this one is especially interesting

It was a wedge chasing the stops of the previous ‘W’
It was a retest of the lower low of the year
It went across the ‘killing zone’ we already talked about: roughly between 3300 and 2100sat
That trendline was breached without any specific previous insight or warning
As you can see more in depth on following chart:

betweenthis trend go breached

First Price Action went EXACTLY at the pink down trendline making some sort of ‘M’ (first rectangle)
Second attempt rougly correspond to new Nocks website and Price Action breached the TL but failed almost right after, not only once but twice (see the larges ‘pins’ after the first attempt in the second rectangle)
What can we extract from this ?
Price is most probably going down; new 10k€ transfer limit will allow large investors to exit with large profits (no me, I love my Gulden so I keep them).

Price will most probably go to retest breach of the redline of first chart (dotted blue line is a good target)

One could also argue that H4 chart shows a range and Head&Shoulder pattern; as I have already said H&S pattern are NOT reversal patterns yet this one is failing making price indeed go towards the blue dotted line and dus making a measured move from the range point of view.

So should you buy at the blue dotted line ? No, but you should definitly start to exit any short you might have and begin to look for long patterns there (conservative trader/investor would wait for a ‘significant’ breach of the upper pink line on D1 chart

Hope it clarify things for you guys, if any specific question, use comment section.
Much love, take care and enjoy your week-end !

Cédric

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