(11th April 17)
Summary of previous analysis and update:
The inside – outside – inside bars pattern (IOI) is still at play and today is 20th (!!!) inside bars.
You can also see this as a tight trading range (TTR), followed by a double fakeout followed by another TTR right after.
Like any range, it’s reflexion of confusions, indecisions and… setups of future traps.
Lack of movement show that PA is convenient for both longs and shorts (drawing money in).
However volume is lowering, this TTR sh*t is going to end. And Soon (WINTER’S COMING) =D
From Short Side, bear view
Price is at the high of a larger range.
Price is making « doji » breakout of the large mid-March bull candle.
Arguably price could be considered « expensive ». Traders might want to short/take partial profit on long (which is the same thing).
Long Side, bull view
All things look like an accumulation phase, make arguably nice bull case.
Going mid range (2000sat) would be considered as a pullback above the start of March bull candle.
What to prepare for ?
ANYTHING, that’s rule of thumb #1 in trading !
-A decisive breakout, followed, maybe, hopefully, by a proper pullback. These are the best kind of trades you could take.
-A fakeout on the « wrong side » followed by a sharp opposite move . Once price did all that we should have a « nice » trend move. I believe it to be at least 3 times the size of the range, so a 3000sat move at least. Obviously not on the sell side, but a strong down move could go at 2000 easy or even 800. Remember Gulden market is tiny; do remember that! Things can, and probably will, get WILD. If unsure, sit on your hands !
How to play this ?
If you go short or exit long (which is the same thing) you are doing so at the top of a range. That’s not a bad thing to consider; TTR are great for generally one thing only: exits.
If you go long, well I’ll be doing it in order not to miss a possibly strong bull move but really you should already be « in ». Put some buy limits could be a good idea to average down you buying price.